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肝硬化合并细菌性腹水患者30天内死亡预测模型的建立

黄云义 王宪波

王传敏, 孟忠吉, 陈悦, 刘莉. 血清降钙素原检测对肝衰竭合并感染的早期诊断价值[J]. 临床肝胆病杂志, 2017, 33(6): 1137-1140. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5256.2017.06.024.
引用本文: 王传敏, 孟忠吉, 陈悦, 刘莉. 血清降钙素原检测对肝衰竭合并感染的早期诊断价值[J]. 临床肝胆病杂志, 2017, 33(6): 1137-1140. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5256.2017.06.024.
Wang ChuanMin, Meng ZhongJi, Chen Yue, Liu Li. Value of serum PCT in early diagnosis of bacterial infection in patients with liver failure[J]. J Clin Hepatol, 2017, 33(6): 1137-1140. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5256.2017.06.024.
Citation: Wang ChuanMin, Meng ZhongJi, Chen Yue, Liu Li. Value of serum PCT in early diagnosis of bacterial infection in patients with liver failure[J]. J Clin Hepatol, 2017, 33(6): 1137-1140. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5256.2017.06.024.

肝硬化合并细菌性腹水患者30天内死亡预测模型的建立

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5256.2019.11.017
基金项目: 

首都卫生发展科研专项批准项目(2018-1-2172); 北京市医院管理局临床医学发展专项经费资助(ZYLX201707); 

详细信息
  • 中图分类号: R575.2

Establishment of a predictive model of death within 30 days for patients with liver cirrhosis and bacterial ascites

Research funding: 

 

  • 摘要: 目的探讨肝硬化合并细菌性腹水患者30 d内死亡的危险因素,并建立可以预测其30 d内死亡的预测模型。方法回顾性收集2012年1月-2018年4月首都医科大学附属北京地坛医院收治的肝硬化合并细菌性腹水患者86例,对其进行为期30 d的随访观察,根据患者预后将其分为生存组(n=73例)与死亡组(n=13例)。符合正态分布的计量资料组间比较采用t检验,非正态分布的计量资料组间比较采用Mann-Whitney U检验,计数资料组间比较采用χ2检验。采用logistic回归分析探讨肝硬化合并细菌性腹水患者30 d内死亡的影响因素,并根据影响因素建立预测模型。用受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)评估各独立影响因素和预测模型的预测价值。结果 logistic多因素回归分析发现腹水白蛋白[比值比(OR)=0. 615,95%可信区间(95%CI):0. 424~0. 893,P=0. 011]、中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)(OR=1. 170,95%CI:1. 011~1. 354,P=0. 035)、MELD评分(OR=1. 341,95%CI:1. 111~1. 618...

     

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  • 收稿日期:  2019-07-02
  • 出版日期:  2019-11-20
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