基线HBV血清标志物联合评分对核苷(酸)类似物抗病毒治疗慢性乙型肝炎患者HBeAg血清学转换的预测价值
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5256.2023.05.011
Value of combined baseline serum HBV markers in predicting HBeAg seroconversion in chronic hepatitis B patients treated by nucleos(t)ide analogues
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摘要:
目的 评估基线血清指标HBV DNA、HBV RNA、HBsAg和HBcrAg联合对HBeAg阳性慢性乙型肝炎患者(CHB)核苷(酸)类似物治疗过程中HBeAg血清学转换的预测能力。 方法 以2007年6月—2008年7月首都医科大学附属北京佑安医院疑难肝病及人工肝中心组建的CHB前瞻性随访队列中83例HBeAg阳性患者为研究对象,回顾性分析基线血清HBV DNA、HBV RNA、HBsAg和HBcrAg水平。计量资料两组间比较采用成组t检验或Mann-Whitney U检验。计数资料两组间比较采用χ2检验。采用Spearman法进行相关性分析。构建Cox回归模型并计算HBeAg转换预测评分,时间依赖性受试者工作特征曲线评估病毒学标志物联合对HBeAg血清学转换的预测能力。不同组别累积转换率的计算使用Kaplan-Meier分析,差异比较采用Log-rank检验。 结果 83例HBeAg阳性患者中位随访108个月,其中44.58%(37/83)的患者发生HBeAg血清学转换。HBeAg转换组患者基线血清HBV DNA[6.23(1.99~9.28) log10IU/mL vs 7.69(2.05~8.96) log10IU/mL,Z=-2.345,P=0.019]和HBV RNA[4.81(1.40~7.53) log10拷贝/mL vs 6.22(2.00~8.49) log10拷贝/mL,Z=-1.702,P=0.010]水平显著低于未转换组;HBsAg和HBcrAg水平两组间比较,差异均无统计意义(P值均>0.05)。基于以上血清标志物构建Cox回归方程,计算联合预测HBeAg血清学转换评分中位数为0.95(范围0.37~3.45)。在总体患者中,联合评分与HBsAg、HBV DNA、HBV RNA和HBcrAg呈负相关,相关系数分别为-0.697、-0.787、-0.990和-0.819(P值均<0.001)。基于联合预测评分中位值,将患者分为高HBeAg转换组和低HBeAg转换组,预测36个月、60个月及84个月时HBeAg血清学转换率,高HBeAg转换组分别为43.90%、51.20%和63.10%,低HBeAg转换组分别为9.60%、17.00%和19.80%,两组间差异有统计学意义(χ2=11.6,P<0.001)。 结论 基于基线血清HBV标志物构建的联合预测评分可以预测CHB患者核苷(酸)类似物治疗过程中HBeAg的血清学转换。 Abstract:Objective To investigate the ability of combined baseline serum markers, i.e., HBV DNA, HBV RNA, HBsAg, and HBcrAg, to predict HBeAg seroconversion in patients with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) treated by nucleos(t)ide analogues. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for 83 HBeAg-positive patients selected as subjects from the prospective CHB follow-up cohort established by Difficult & Complicated Liver Diseases and Artificial Liver Center, Beijing YouAn Hospital, Capital Medical University, from June 2007 to July 2008, and the baseline serum levels of HBV DNA, HBV RNA, HBsAg, and HBcrAg were analyzed. The t-test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups, and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. The Spearman method was used for correlation analysis. A Cox regression model was established to calculate HBeAg seroconversion prediction score, and the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the ability of combined markers in predicting HBeAg seroconversion. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate cumulative seroconversion rate in each group, and the Log-rank test was used for comparison between groups. Results For the 83 HBeAg-positive patients, the median follow-up time was 108 months, and 44.58%(37/83) of these patients achieved HBeAg seroconversion. Compared with the non-seroconversion group, the HBeAg seroconversion group had significantly lower baseline serum levels of HBV DNA [6.23(1.99-9.28) log10IU/mL vs 7.69(2.05-8.96) log10IU/mL, Z=-2.345, P=0.019] and HBV RNA [4.81(1.40-7.53) log10copies/mL vs 6.22(2.00-8.49) log10copies/mL, Z=-1.702, P=0.010], and there were no significant differences in the levels of HBsAg and HBcrAg between the two groups (P > 0.05). The Cox regression equation constructed based on the above serum markers showed a median score of 0.95(range 0.37-3.45) for predicting HBeAg seroconversion. In the total population, the combined score was negatively correlated with HBsAg, HBV DNA, HBV RNA, and HBcrAg (r=-0.697, -0.787, -0.990, and -0.819, all P < 0.001). Based on the median prediction score, the patients were divided into high HBeAg seroconversion group and low HBeAg seroconversion group; as for the prediction of HBeAg seroconversion rate at 36, 60, and 84 months, the high HBeAg seroconversion group had a seroconversion rate of 43.90%, 51.20%, and 63.10%, respectively, while the low HBeAg seroconversion group had a seroconversion rate of 9.60%, 17.00%, and 19.8%, respectively, and there was a significant difference between the two groups (χ2=11.6, P < 0.001). Conclusion The combined prediction score based on baseline serum HBV markers can predict HBeAg seroconversion in CHB patients treated by nucleos(t)ide analogues. -
Key words:
- Hepatitis B, Chronic /
- Nucleosides /
- Nucleotides /
- Biomarkers /
- Hepatitis B e Antigens /
- Seroconversion
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HBV感染是慢性乙型肝炎(CHB)、肝硬化、肝衰竭和肝细胞癌的主要致病因素[1],全世界约2.92亿人感染HBV[2]。近年来虽然新药不断研发,抗病毒药物作用不断完善,但CHB的彻底治愈依然是临床难题之一[3]。对于HBeAg阳性的CHB患者,现实的治疗目标是达到HBeAg阴转并进一步实现血清学转换,这不仅反映了机体部分免疫学控制,并且是CHB患者获得临床治愈的先决条件[4-5]。不同的研究[6-9]表明,在接受核苷(酸)类似物或干扰素治疗的CHB患者中,基线HBV DNA、HBV RNA、HBcrAg和HBsAg水平可能与HBeAg血清学转换相关。然而,使用单一某种病毒学标志物预测HBeAg血清转换可能存在局限性[8, 10]。因此,本研究对基线HBV DNA、HBV RNA、HBcrAg和HBsAg联合预测CHB患者核苷(酸)类似物治疗过程中HBeAg血清学转换的能力进行了评估。
1. 资料与方法
1.1 研究对象
回顾性分析2007年6月—2008年7月首都医科大学附属北京佑安医院疑难肝病及人工肝中心组建的CHB患者队列的临床数据。符合入组条件的病例连续入组,纳入标准:(1)年龄≥16岁;(2)CHB诊断及治疗标准符合《慢性乙型肝炎防治指南》[11];(3)同意接受核苷(酸)类似物长期治疗;(4)HBeAg阳性。排除标准:(1)其他原因造成的活动性肝病或合并其他病毒感染,包括:HCV、HDV、HIV,或存在自身免疫性肝病;(2)除乙型肝炎外有其他重大身心疾病,如严重心脏病、肾脏疾病等;(3)肾功能下降(肌酐清除率<50 mL/min)需要减少药物使用剂量者;(4)依从性差者;(5)既往恶性肿瘤病史,包括肝细胞癌、原位癌和肝脏不典型增生结节,不行肝移植术预期寿命少于1年者;(6)精神疾病患者;(7)入组前6个月接受皮质类固醇药物、免疫抑制剂和化疗药物者;(8)女性妊娠、哺乳者。
1.2 血液生化、病毒学指标检测
肝功能、生化等检测由首都医科大学附属北京佑安医院检验中心完成,使用自动生化检测器(AU640生化分析仪,OLYMPUS,日本)进行ALT和AST等生化指标的测定。应用电化学发光免疫测定法(Abbott Laboratories,Chicago,IL,USA),在Roche Cobas e601分析仪上测定血清HBsAg、抗-HBs、HBeAg、抗-HBe和抗-HBc。使用Elecsys(Roche Diagnostics)对HBsAg进行定量,最低检测下限为0.05 IU/mL。使用Cobas HBV Amplicor Monitor测定法(Roche Diagnostics, Pleasanton, CA, USA)测定血清HBV DNA水平,最低检测下限为50 IU/mL。
1.3 HBV RNA、HBcrAg定量检测
采用湖南圣湘HBV RNA定量检测试剂盒(PCR-荧光探针法),具体操作参照文献[8, 12-14]。操作过程简述如下:HBV RNA用核酸提取纯化试剂盒(湖南圣湘,长沙,中国)分离,用200 μL血清通过磁珠法提取核酸。然后通过DNase Ⅰ处理去除HBV DNA模板,反应体系包含2 μL DNase Ⅰ反应缓冲液(10×),2 μL DNAse Ⅰ(不含RNase)和16 μL核酸。在37 ℃下反应30 min,之后将每种混合物在75 ℃孵育10 min以灭活DNase I。最后,使用HBV pgRNA高灵敏定量技术对HBV RNA进行一步逆转录和实时荧光定量PCR,测定的最低下限为200拷贝/mL。在自动分析系统中使用化学发光酶免疫测定法检测HBcrAg水平(Lumipulse System,Fujirebio Inc.,Tokyo,Japan),测定的最低下限为1000 U/mL,线性范围为3~7 log10 U/mL。
1.4 统计学方法
应用SPSS 22.0和R软件4.1.2版本进行统计分析。正态分布的计量资料以x±s表示,两组间比较采用成组t检验;非正态分布的计量资料以M(P25~P75)表示,两组间比较采用Mann-Whitney U检验。计数资料两组间比较采用χ2检验。HBV DNA、HBV RNA、HBcrAg及HBsAg定量数据进行对数转换。采用Spearman法进行相关性分析。使用Survival包构建Cox回归模型,并使用Predict函数计算每例患者HBeAg转换的预测评分,使用SurvivalROC包计算最佳cut-off值,timeROC包时间依赖性ROC曲线下面积(AUC)评估病毒学标志物联合对HBeAg血清学转换的预测能力。不同组别累积转换率的计算使用Kaplan-Meier分析,差异比较采用Log-rank检验。P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。
2. 结果
2.1 一般资料
研究共纳入83例HBeAg阳性CHB患者,平均年龄(36.42±9.78)岁,其中男性68例(81.93%);39例患者取得基因型数据,其中基因B型5例,基因C型29例,其他基因型5例。中位随访时间108个月(范围18~138个月),44.58%(37/83)的患者发生HBeAg血清学转换,HBeAg血清学转换中位时间为126个月(95%CI:92.16~159.84)。患者一般资料详见表 1。
表 1 患者基线临床特征Table 1. The baseline characteristics of patients指标 总数(n=83) HBeAg转换组(n=37) HBeAg未转换组(n=46) 统计值 P值 年龄(岁) 36.42±9.78 37.84±10.51 35.28±9.12 t=-1.186 0.239 男性[例(%)] 68(81.93) 28(75.68) 40(86.96) χ2=1.762 0.184 ETV/ADV治疗(例) 46/37 18/19 28/18 χ2=1.240 0.266 初治/LAM经治(例) 36/47 16/21 20/26 χ2<0.001 0.983 BMI(kg/m2) 23.89±3.71 24.24±3.18 23.61±4.10 t=-0.765 0.446 ALT(U/L) 68.50(12.60~681.90) 69.50(14.90~681.90) 68.00(112.60~520.10) Z=-0.050 0.960 AST(U/L) 44.00(10.90~358.80) 46.00(10.90~358.80) 41.55(12.90~249.30) Z=-0.366 0.714 AST/ALT 0.66(0.25~2.32) 0.78(0.25~1.48) 0.74(0.26~2.32) Z=-0.788 0.431 TBil(μmol/L) 15.00(6.70~59.40) 15.90(6.70~36.40) 14.70(7.90~59.40) Z=-0.316 0.752 ALP(U/L) 88.15(45.00~412.20) 87.45(46.90~252.90) 88.50(45.00~412.20) Z=-0.229 0.819 HBsAg(log10IU/mL) 3.77(-0.07~4.95) 3.48(2.15~4.74) 4.00(-0.07~4.95) Z=-1.162 0.098 HBV DNA(log10IU/mL) 6.79(1.99~9.28) 6.23(1.99~9.28) 7.69(2.05~8.96) Z=-2.345 0.019 HBV RNA(log10拷贝/mL) 5.45(1.40~8.49) 4.81(1.40~7.53) 6.22(2.00~8.49) Z=-1.702 0.010 HBcrAg(log10U/mL) 7.15±1.12 6.75±1.25 7.71±0.96 t=1.981 0.054 注:ETV,恩替卡韦;ADV,阿德福韦酯;LAM,拉米夫定。 2.2 基线病毒学标志物联合评分及血清标志物之间的相关性分析
使用基线血清病毒学标志物HBsAg、HBV DNA、HBV RNA和HBcrAg构建Cox回归方程预测HBeAg血清学转换,联合预测评分=exp(-0.187 5 ×HBsAg-0.010 8×HBV DNA-0.275 8×HBV RNA-0.053 4×HBcrAg),中位数为0.95(范围0.37~3.45)。在所纳入患者中,联合评分与HBsAg、HBV DNA、HBV RNA和HBcrAg呈负相关,相关系数分别为-0.697、-0.787、-0.990和-0.819(P值均<0.001)。
2.3 基线病毒学标志物联合预测HBeAg血清学转换的时间依赖性AUC分析
血清标志物联合评分预测36个月、60个月及84个月时HBeAg血清学转换的AUC分别为0.86(95%CI:0.74~0.99)、0.79(95%CI:0.64~0.94)和0.84(95%CI:0.70~0.98)(表 2)。
表 2 基线病毒学标志物联合预测36、60和84个月HBeAg血清学转换的时间依赖性AUC分析Table 2. The time-dependent area under the curve analysis of combined indicator for HBeAg seroconversion at month 36, 60 and 84时间点 AUC(95%CI) cut-off值 敏感度 特异度 阳性预测值 阴性预测值 36个月 0.86(0.74~0.99) 1.17 0.86 0.70 0.40 0.95 60个月 0.79(0.64~0.94) 1.09 0.82 0.71 0.52 0.91 84个月 0.84(0.70~0.98) 0.82 0.93 0.63 0.59 0.94 基于基线病毒学标志物联合预测评分中位值,将高于中位值评分患者纳入高HBeAg转换组,低于中位值评分患者纳入低HBeAg转换组,两组平均转换时间分别为68.46个月(95%CI:53.66~83.26)和113.60个月(95%CI:101.27~125.92)。预测36个月、60个月及84个月时高转换组HBeAg血清学转换率分别为43.90%、51.20%和63.10%,低转换组分别为9.60%、17.00%和19.80%,两组间差异有统计学意义(χ2=11.6,P<0.001)。
3. 讨论
既往研究表明,血清病毒学标志物HBV DNA、HBV RNA、HBcrAg和HBsAg定量不仅可以反映cccDNA复制活跃程度,并且与组织学变化相关[15],在预测核苷(酸)类似物治疗过程中早期病毒耐药[16]、抗病毒治疗应答[6-7]及评估核苷(酸)类似物停药后复发风险方面[13, 17]具有潜在的临床应用价值。本研究结果表明,基线血清病毒学标志物HBsAg、HBV DNA、HBV RNA和HBcrAg联合预测评分可以预测CHB患者核苷(酸)类似物治疗过程中HBeAg的血清学转换,并对患者血清学转换的可能性进行高低分层。
本研究结果中有3个方面值得注意。第一,与HBeAg未转换患者相比较,发生HBeAg转换者基线血清病毒学标志物HBV DNA和HBV RNA水平显著更低。这与其他真实世界HBeAg阳性CHB患者核苷(酸)类似物抗病毒治疗长期随访队列研究结果类似[10, 18]。第二,联合评分与各病毒学标志物之间呈现较强的负相关性,可能与各病毒学标志物均转录于cccDNA有关[14, 19-20]。同时提示联合预测评分对于各标志物的替代性良好,且评分越高,发生血清学转换的可能性越高。第三,在长期核苷(酸)类似物抗病毒治疗CHB患者中,联合使用血清病毒学标志物对患者进行HBeAg血清学转换分层预测,对患者进行个体化的管理策略具有潜在的临床应用价值。本研究中Kaplan-Meier分析结果显示,低HBeAg转换组患者累积转换率较低,其治疗持续时间预期较长。相反,高HBeAg转换组患者持续治疗时间可能较短,对于HBeAg转换可能性高的患者,若有停药需求,可以考虑在有限疗程后停药。同时,有随机对照研究[21-22]表明,核苷(酸)类似物治疗基础上联合干扰素治疗可能增加HBeAg血清学转换概率。对于本研究中高转换组患者增加干扰素治疗是否为较优的治疗策略尚待研究。
综上所述,基线血清HBV标志物HBsAg、HBV DNA、HBV RNA和HBcrAg联合可以预测CHB患者核苷(酸)类似物治疗中HBeAg的血清学转换,并可以实现对患者进行血清学转换分层。未来仍需要不同中心进一步研究验证及改进。
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表 1 患者基线临床特征
Table 1. The baseline characteristics of patients
指标 总数(n=83) HBeAg转换组(n=37) HBeAg未转换组(n=46) 统计值 P值 年龄(岁) 36.42±9.78 37.84±10.51 35.28±9.12 t=-1.186 0.239 男性[例(%)] 68(81.93) 28(75.68) 40(86.96) χ2=1.762 0.184 ETV/ADV治疗(例) 46/37 18/19 28/18 χ2=1.240 0.266 初治/LAM经治(例) 36/47 16/21 20/26 χ2<0.001 0.983 BMI(kg/m2) 23.89±3.71 24.24±3.18 23.61±4.10 t=-0.765 0.446 ALT(U/L) 68.50(12.60~681.90) 69.50(14.90~681.90) 68.00(112.60~520.10) Z=-0.050 0.960 AST(U/L) 44.00(10.90~358.80) 46.00(10.90~358.80) 41.55(12.90~249.30) Z=-0.366 0.714 AST/ALT 0.66(0.25~2.32) 0.78(0.25~1.48) 0.74(0.26~2.32) Z=-0.788 0.431 TBil(μmol/L) 15.00(6.70~59.40) 15.90(6.70~36.40) 14.70(7.90~59.40) Z=-0.316 0.752 ALP(U/L) 88.15(45.00~412.20) 87.45(46.90~252.90) 88.50(45.00~412.20) Z=-0.229 0.819 HBsAg(log10IU/mL) 3.77(-0.07~4.95) 3.48(2.15~4.74) 4.00(-0.07~4.95) Z=-1.162 0.098 HBV DNA(log10IU/mL) 6.79(1.99~9.28) 6.23(1.99~9.28) 7.69(2.05~8.96) Z=-2.345 0.019 HBV RNA(log10拷贝/mL) 5.45(1.40~8.49) 4.81(1.40~7.53) 6.22(2.00~8.49) Z=-1.702 0.010 HBcrAg(log10U/mL) 7.15±1.12 6.75±1.25 7.71±0.96 t=1.981 0.054 注:ETV,恩替卡韦;ADV,阿德福韦酯;LAM,拉米夫定。 表 2 基线病毒学标志物联合预测36、60和84个月HBeAg血清学转换的时间依赖性AUC分析
Table 2. The time-dependent area under the curve analysis of combined indicator for HBeAg seroconversion at month 36, 60 and 84
时间点 AUC(95%CI) cut-off值 敏感度 特异度 阳性预测值 阴性预测值 36个月 0.86(0.74~0.99) 1.17 0.86 0.70 0.40 0.95 60个月 0.79(0.64~0.94) 1.09 0.82 0.71 0.52 0.91 84个月 0.84(0.70~0.98) 0.82 0.93 0.63 0.59 0.94 -
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