Objective To construct a noninvasive LASSO regression model based on commonly used clinical and laboratory markers associated with NAFLD,and to investigate the value of this model in the prediction and diagnosis of progressive liver fibrosis in NAFLD. Methods A total of 258 NAFLD patients who were consecutively admitted to The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Medical University from January 2018 to August 2019 were enrolled,and according to liver stiffness measurement measured by FibroScan,the patients were divided into non-progressive fibrosis group with 184 patients and progressive fibrosis group with 74 patients. General information and biochemical parameters were collected. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between the two groups,and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between the two groups. The chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. The LASSO regression algorithm was used to screen out the characteristic indicators with non-zero coefficients which were associated with progressive fibrosis,and a LASSO regression model was constructed. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve( AUC),sensitivity,and specificity of this model were calculated,and the LASSO regression model was compared with known classic models. Results The LASSO regression analysis screened out the important variables of type Ⅳ collagen,body mass index,and aspartate aminotransferase,and a LASSO regression model was constructed based on these three indicators. The results showed that the LASSO regression model had an AUC of 0. 843( 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0. 790-0. 897),a sensitivity of 0. 851,and a specificity of 0. 810,with a significantly better AUC than APRI( AUC = 0. 791,95% CI: 0. 731-0. 850),FIB-4( AUC = 0. 426,95% CI:0. 345-0. 507),and NFS( AUC = 0. 540,95% CI: 0. 463-0. 617). Conclusion Compared with the existing noninvasive scoring system for progressive liver fibrosis in NAFLD,this regression model has better AUC,specificity,and sensitivity,with strong practicability and operability,and therefore,it can be used as a new noninvasive model for the diagnosis of liver fibrosis.
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