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ISSN 2097-3497 (Online)
CN 22-1108/R
Volume 38 Issue 11
Nov.  2022
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Article Navigation >  Journal of Clinical Hepatology  > 2022  >  38(11): 2551-2557

Value of different scoring systems in predicting the severity and prognosis of hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5256.2022.11.022

  • Department of Gastroenterology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming 650000, China

Research funding:

Hospital Clinical Research Project of The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University (2020ynlc013)

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  • Corresponding author: YANG Jing, yangjing_dl@163.com(ORCID: 0000-0003-3305-8893)
  • Received Date: 2022-04-19
  • Accepted Date: 2022-05-27
  • Published Date: 2022-11-20
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To investigate the best scoring systems for predicting the severity and prognosis of hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis (HLAP) by comparing APACHEII, BISAP, MCTSI, MEWS, POP, SPS, and PANC3 scores.  Methods  A retrospective analysis was performed for the data of 123 patients with HLAP who were hospitalized and treated in The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University from October 2017 to January 2022. The patients were divided into mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) group with 24 patients, moderate- severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) group with 56 patients, and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) group with 43 patients, and the three groups were compared in terms of basic data and scores of the above scoring systems. The Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between multiple groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. MedCalc software was used to plot the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to compare the value of these scoring systems in predicting disease severity and local and systemic complications in HLAP patients.  Results  There were significant differences between the three groups in diabetes mellitus (χ2=6.880, P < 0.05), length of hospital stay (H=26.494, P < 0.001), local complications (χ2=52.211, P < 0.001), acute kidney injury (AKI) (χ2=38.247, P < 0.001), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (χ2=79.201, P < 0.001), and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) (χ2=45.032, P < 0.001). As for the scores of the above scoring systems, there were significant differences between the three groups in APACHE Ⅱ, BISAP, MCTSI, MEWS, POP, SPS, and PANC3 (H=47.525, 42.662, 53.545, 31.664, 49.233, 48.543, and 9.443, all P < 0.05). APACHE Ⅱ score had a significantly higher value than MEWS score in predicting SAP (Z=2.090, P < 0.05), and the other scores had a similar value, among which POP score had the largest AUC of 0.883. MCTSI score had the highest value in predicting local complications (AUC=0.886), with a sensitivity of 84.7% and a specificity of 74.5% at the cut-off value of 5. APACHE Ⅱ and POP scores had an AUC of 0.911 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.835-0.986, P < 0.001) and 0.920 (95%CI: 0.866-0.974, P < 0.001), respectively, in predicting AKI; APACHE Ⅱ score had a higher predictive value than MCTSI and MEWS scores, POP score had a higher predictive value than MCTSI, MEWS, and BISAP scores, and SPS score had a higher predictive value than MCTSI score. APACHE Ⅱ score had an AUC of 0.914 (95%CI: 0.854-0.973, P < 0.001) in predicting ARDS and had a higher predictive value than BISAP and MEWS (Z=2.152 and 3.015, both P < 0.05). APACHE Ⅱ and POP scores had an AUC of 0.969 (95%CI: 0.941-0.996, P < 0.001) and 0.932 (95%CI: 0.880-0.984, P < 0.001), respectively, in predicting MODS, and APACHE Ⅱ score had a higher predictive value than SPS, BISAP, MEWS, and MCTSI.  Conclusion  POP score has the highest value in predicting SAP, with a comparable predictive ability to all the other scoring systems except MEWS. APACHEII and POP scores have a good value in predicting systemic complications and show a high accuracy in predicting AKI and MODS, and APACHEII score is highly accurate in predicting ARDS.

     

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