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ISSN 1001-5256 (Print)
ISSN 2097-3497 (Online)
CN 22-1108/R
Volume 39 Issue 11
Nov.  2023
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Article Navigation >  Journal of Clinical Hepatology  > 2023  >  39(11): 2575-2579

Trend and prediction of the disease burden of acute hepatitis B in China

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5256.2023.11.010
  • a.

    Department of Clinical Laboratory,Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital，Harbin 150081，China）

  • b.

    Department of Pathology，Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital，Harbin 150081，China

Research funding:

Harbin Medical University Affiliated Cancer Hospital Haiyan Fundation (JJQN2020-16)

More Information
  • Corresponding author: JIANG Yang， jy850121@163.com （ORCID： 0009-0009-1015-2132）
  • Received Date: 2023-02-12
  • Accepted Date: 2023-04-07
  • Published Date: 2023-11-28
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To investigate the situation and development trend of the disease burden of acute hepatitis B in China in 1990 — 2019.  Methods  The Global Burden of Disease 2019 was used to analyze the incidence rate， mortality rate， and disability-adjusted life year （DALY） rate of acute hepatitis B in different sex and age groups and predict the trend of the incidence rate of acute hepatitis B.  Results  In 2019， the incidence rate， mortality rate， and DALY rate of acute hepatitis B in China were 1 623.71/100 000， 0.20/100 000， and 10.04/100 000 respectively， which were reduced by 42.03%， 79.38%， and 80.21%， respectively， compared with the data in 1990， and women showed lower incidence rate， mortality rate， and DALY rate of acute hepatitis B than men. In 2019， the 20～<54 years group had the highest incidence rate （2 285.85/100 000） and DALY rate （10.53/100 000）， and the ≥55 years group had the highest mortality rate of 0.52/100 000. The Joinpoint regression model analysis showed that the incidence rate， mortality rate， and DALY rate of acute hepatitis B in China tended to decrease from 1990 to 2019， with an average annual percent change of -1.9%， -5.2%， and -5.5%， respectively （P<0.05）. The grey prediction model GM （1，1） showed that the incidence rate of acute hepatitis B will decrease from 2020 to 2030 in China.  Conclusion  The disease burden of acute hepatitis B tended to decrease from 1990 to 2019 in China， indicating that the prevention and treatment measures for acute hepatitis B have achieved a marked effect in China； however， due to the large population base of China， active preventive measures should be further adopted to reduce the disease burden of acute hepatitis B.

     

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