ROC analysis of prognostic factors in Chinese patients with primary biliary cirrhosis

Objective To investigate and assess prognostic factors for survival in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis ( PBC) by receiver operating characteristics ( ROC) curves and Kaplan- Meier methods. Methods A total of 155 patients were identified and followed. Terminal events were death and / or liver transplantation. The optimal thresholds for continuous variables were established by ROC curves and cumulative proportions of patients developing an event were estimated using the Kaplan- Meier method. Results During a median follow- up period of 50 months ( range: 6- 316) , 36 patients died or underwent liver transplantation. Age 55 years or older, Total Bilirubin ( TBil) > 1. 8mg / dl, serum IgG > 17. 2 g / L, and Mayo risk score ( MRS) > 6. 11 were associated with mortality. With four markers in series test, their sensitivity was 99. 18%, specificity was 5. 56%, the total coincidence rate was 79. 23%; With four markers in parallel test, their sensitivity was 100%, specificity was 24. 51%, the total coincidence rate was 40. 77%. Age 55 years or older ( P = 0. 001) , TBil > 1. 8mg / dl ( P = 0. 005) , serum IgG > 17. 2 g / L ( P = 0. 001) , and MRS > 6. 11 ( P < 0. 000 1) were significantly associated with mortality. Conclusion Age 55 years or older, TBil > 1. 8mg / dL, serum IgG > 17. 2 g / L, and MRS > 6. 11 might predict survival for PBC patients with liver cirrhosis.